Joshua Gordon, PhD
Ironman Arizona is a must-experience race that combines the thrill of a fast course with the warmth of an enthusiastic crowd. Set in the heart of Tempe, athletes are welcomed by a spectator-friendly course that ensures your support crew can catch you multiple times on each leg. The swim takes place in Tempe Town Lake, an easy-to-navigate course that helps competitors stay calm and focused. The bike leg, a three-loop out-and-back with some slight elevation and headwinds, isn’t the most scenic, but it offers enough variation to stay engaging, especially with the tailwind boost on the return. Finally, the run course around the Salt River is known for its flat sections and short rollers, perfect for those chasing a personal best. The Arizona desert climate brings unpredictable weather in late November, with potential for chilly mornings and warm afternoons—so layering up for race day is wise.
With easy access from Phoenix and plenty of local accommodations, Ironman Arizona is convenient for both athletes and their supporters. Its welcoming atmosphere and excellent volunteer support make it feel like a celebration, helping to keep pre-race nerves at bay. This race promises an unforgettable experience in a setting that blends challenging endurance with unmatched camaraderie.
Introduction
In this blog, I’ll analyze Ironman Arizona finisher data from 2015 to 2023, breaking down results by age group and gender to reveal performance trends over the years. By examining the data, we can gain insight into how athletes of various age groups are doing when racing this iconic course. Whether you’re aiming to set a personal best or just want to understand broader trends, this breakdown provides an up to date, data-driven view of Ironman Arizona.
I’ll also zoom into the impact of weather and wind patterns on race day, giving insights into the conditions athletes often face. By exploring finish times alongside environmental factors, we can see how Arizona’s unique November climate shapes the race experience. Drawing on my 2022 experience at Ironman Arizona and a decade of racing in full Ironmans, I’ll offer race-day guidance for tackling this course. With the 2024 edition coming up on November 17, I’ll have fresh insights to share from my own experience on race day.
Race Statistics
In the following section, I’ll reveal trends and insights in Ironman Arizona race data from multiple perspectives. We’ll start with an overview of Average Finish Times by Year, examining how finish times have shifted across years, potentially revealing overall performance improvements or challenges. Next, I’ll share the Typical Weather by Year and Wind Speed and Direction by Year, highlighting the role of environmental conditions on race day and their potential impact on finish times.
In the Age Group Analysis section, I’ll break down performance by different age groups, followed by focused sections on Female Finisher Data and Male Finisher Data, where we’ll look at gender-specific trends. Visual aids such as the Average Finish Time by Age Group by Year and Distribution of Finish Times by Age Group and Year will help us identify consistency and variation in performances within each age group over time. Finally, I’ll present Average Times by Sport, Age Group, and Year in tabular format to offer a more granular view of how athletes perform across the swim, bike, and run segments by age group. Together, these analyses will provide a comprehensive view of trends and factors influencing race outcomes at Ironman Arizona.
Average Finish Time By Year (25,50,75 percentiles)
The following chart displays the trends in finish times at Ironman Arizona from 2015 to 2023, segmented by gender and percentile (P25, P50, and P75). The data suggests that both male and female top performers (represented by the 25th percentile) are improving slightly over the years, while the mid-pack and slower finishers show more stability. This trend could reflect increasing competition and performance standards at the faster end, possibly due to advances in training, nutrition, or equipment. The steadiness in the 50th and 75th percentiles may indicate that these segments of athletes face consistent race challenges and environmental factors at Ironman Arizona.
Typical Weather by Year
The following chart illustrates the typical daily temperature ranges at Ironman Arizona from 2015 to 2023, focusing on high, low, and mean temperatures. The variation in temperature patterns indicates that Ironman Arizona athletes can face anything from mild to moderately hot conditions. Warmer years, especially those with higher peaks, may require additional hydration and pacing adjustments on both the bike and run. Cooler morning lows make a wetsuit-friendly swim more likely and can add comfort at the race start. However, athletes should be prepared to adapt to changing temperatures throughout the day. This variability also emphasizes the importance of checking the forecast leading up to the race and preparing for potentially wide temperature ranges on race day.
Observed Trends
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High Temperatures (Blue Line): Highs vary widely, with peaks in 2018 and 2022 reaching the low 80s °F, making for hotter race days. Cooler years followed these peaks, reflecting the unpredictable weather athletes must prepare for.
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Mean Temperatures (Red Line): Mean temperatures generally stay in the mid-60s to mid-70s °F, providing mostly mild race conditions with occasional warmer years—ideal for endurance racing but still variable.
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Low Temperatures (Green Line): Lows are typically in the 50s, with some years dipping to the high 40s, like 2020. These cooler mornings can be refreshing but may require extra layering for comfort during early race stages.
Wind Speed and Direction by Year
This wind rose plot below shows the direction and speed of wind by year. Here’s how to interpret it:
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Direction: The plot is circular, with degrees around the edges (e.g., 0/360 for north, 90 for east, 180 for south, and 270 for west). Each "spoke" points in the direction the wind is coming from. For example, if most of the shading extends toward 135 degrees, it indicates winds predominantly coming from the southeast.
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Speed Categories: The colors in the legend indicate wind speed categories.
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Light yellow represents winds of 5-10 m/s.
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Light blue indicates 10-15 m/s.
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Dark blue shows the strongest winds at 15-20 m/s.
By looking at the direction and color intensity in each year’s plot, you can identify the primary wind direction and typical speeds athletes may encounter.
Age Group Analysis
Female Finisher Data
The number of female finishers appears to have decreased from 2015-2018.
Male Finisher Data
Male 40, and M45 consistently have the largest number of finishers.
Average Finish TIme by Age Group by Year
In the chart below you can find your age group and see how the average finish time has changed over the years.
Distribution of Finish Times by Age Group and Year
In this chart, each box represents the distribution of finish times within each age group for a given year. A taller box indicates a wider variation in finish times, while a shorter box suggests a more consistent range of times. The central box captures the middle 50% of finishers (25th to 75th percentile), with lines extending to show the bottom 25% and top 25% of finish times.
Average Times by Sport, AgeGroup, and Year
This following tables display the finish times of athletes by age group and year, using conditional formatting to highlight performance levels:
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Color Coding: The color shading indicates relative speed, with:
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Green representing faster finish times.
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Red representing slower finish times.
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Age Groups (18 to 75): Each column represents a different age group, ranging from 18 (athletes 18-24) up to 75 (athletes 75+).
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Yearly Comparison: Each row shows finish times for a particular year, allowing for comparison of finish times within the same age group across different years or among different age groups within the same year.
This format makes it easy to spot trends, such as which age groups generally have faster times or how times fluctuate year to year, with greener cells indicating faster performances and redder cells showing slower times.
Male Swim
Male Bike
Male Run
Male Total
Female Swim
Female Bike
Female Run
Female Overall
